Monday, September 7, 2009

$200 oil forecast by 2010?


In an interview with Rigzone Jeff Rubin believes that oil prices are going to escalate much higher. In his book Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization, Rubin foretells $200 oil and a vastly transformed global economic picture coming into focus very soon.

The chief economist at CIBC World Markets in Canada for 20 years, Rubin correctly predicted the price of oil reaching $50 in 2005 and $100 in 2007. No one believed him then, either.

"There continues to be widespread skepticism regarding my oil price forecast," Rubin told Rigzone. "As I noted in the book, few people have ever changed their minds during the entire history of the peak oil debate, at least insofar as 'experts' are concerned."

Friday, September 4, 2009

Life Cycle Assessment of Biofuels

ESU-services Ltd. has been founded in 1998. Its core objectives are research, consulting, review and training in the fields of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) in the sectors energy, basic minerals, materials, food and lifestyles and of Substance Flow Analysis (SFA).

They have published case studies about the life cycle impact of biomass energy systems:
How far can a person get with fuel from 0.5 ha (a soccer field)?
  • Depending on the car: 5’000 – 30’000 km per soccer field
  • By bicycle and food: 12’500 km (veal), 65‘000 km (wine), 400‘000 km (wheat), 600’000 km (potatoes)
Ecoinvent Database

The ecoinvent database offered by ESU Services contains life cycle inventory data of energy (electricity, oil, coal, natural gas, biomass, biofuels, bioenergy, hydro power, nuclear power, photovoltaics, wind power, biogas), materials (chemicals, metals, minerals, plastics, paper, biomass, biomaterials), waste management (incineration, landfill, waste water treatment), transports (road, rail, air, ship), agricultural products and processes, electronics, metals processing, and building ventilation.

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Happy Planet Index

The Happy Planet Index reveals the ecological efficiency with which human well-being is delivered. The index combines environmental impact with human well-being to measure the environmental efficiency with which, country by country, people live long and happy lives.

The HPI is an innovative measure that shows the ecological efficiency with which human well-being is delivered around the world. It is the first ever index to combine environmental impact with well-being to measure the environmental efficiency with which country by country, people live long and happy lives. The second compilation of the global HPI, published in July 2009, shows that we are still far from achieving sustainable well-being and puts forward a vision of what we need to do to get there.

The Index doesn’t reveal the ‘happiest’ country in the world. It shows the relative efficiency with which nations convert the planet’s natural resources into long and happy lives for their citizens. The nations that top the Index aren’t the happiest places in the world, but the nations that score well show that achieving, long, happy lives without over-stretching the planet’s resources is possible.

The HPI shows that around the world, high levels of resource consumption do not reliably produce high levels of well-being, and that it is possible to produce high well-being without excessive consumption of the Earth’s resources. It also reveals that there are different routes to achieving comparable levels of well-being. The model followed by the West can provide widespread longevity and variable life satisfaction, but it does so only at a vast and ultimately counter-productive cost in terms of resource consumption.

On a scale of 0 to 100 for the HPI, we have a target for nations to aspire to by 2050 of 89. This is based on attainable levels of life expectancy and well-being and a reasonably-sized ecological footprint.

Based on the results of HPI 2.0, published in July 2009, the highest HPI score is only 76.1, scored by Costa Rica. The lowest, and perhaps less surprising than some other results, is Zimbabwe’s at 16.6. No country achieves an overall high score and no country does well on all three indicators. Costa Rica, for example, has an ecological of life expectancy at 69 years.

The message is that when we measure the efficiency with which countries enable the fundamental inputs of natural resources to be turned into the ultimate ends of long and happy lives, all can do better.

Let’s today step out of the normal boundaries of analysis of our economic crisis and ask a radical question: What if the crisis of 2008 represents something much more fundamental than a deep recession? What if it’s telling us that the whole growth model we created over the last 50 years is simply unsustainable economically and ecologically and that 2008 was when we hit the wall – when Mother Nature and the market both said: ‘No more’ (by Thomas Friedman - ‘The inflection is near?’ The New York Times, 8 March 2009).

Download the new report The Happy Planet Index 2.0: Why good lives don’t have to cost the Earth.

What can you get from a global hectare?

A global hectare is the same as 10,000m2. Based on calculations by the US NGO Redefining Progress, 1000m2, one-tenth of a global hectare, can get you one of the following:
  • 288kg of fruit and veg (9% above the US annual average per-head consumption)
  • 20kg of cheese (35% above US annual average)
  • 178 litres of milk (72% above US annual average)
  • 8kg of beef (average US consumption over 15 weeks)
  • 10kg of local only beef
  • 7kg of fish (US annual average)
  • 125 bottles of imported wine (three times US average)
  • 350 330ml bottles of imported beer
  • 990 pints of locally produced beer
  • 18 medium chickens (1.6kg each)
  • 258 baguettes (made from local wheat)
  • 440kWh of electricity (based on mix of energy with 5% renewables; would cost £65, and is what average American uses in six weeks)
  • A 10-mile round-trip city commute by saloon car every working day for two months OR a round trip, by car, from London to Newcastle.
  • A desktop computer with a 20” screen, keyboard and small deskjet printer, but not the energy to run it.
To achieve one planet living under current trade, economic and energy production systems, each individual would need to restrict themselves to a total of 21 such portions of consumption per year. Of course, with more locally produced food and goods, and more renewable energy generation, each individual could consume more.

Monday, August 31, 2009

The Oil Intensity of Food


Lester R. Brown has posted a guest blog entry to The Oil Drum on The Oil Intensity of Food. The author of Plan B 3.0 provides us a perspective on the American food system which rests on an unstable foundation of massive fossil fuel inputs.

Today we are an oil-based civilization, one that is totally dependent on a resource whose production will soon be falling. Since 1981, the quantity of oil extracted has exceeded new discoveries by an ever-widening margin. In 2008, the world pumped 31 billion barrels of oil but discovered fewer than 9 billion barrels of new oil. World reserves of conventional oil are in a free fall, dropping every year.

This prospect of peaking oil production has direct consequences for world food security, as modern agriculture depends heavily on the use of fossil fuels. Most tractors use gasoline or diesel fuel. Irrigation pumps use diesel fuel, natural gas, or coal-fired electricity. Fertilizer production is also energy-intensive. Natural gas is used to synthesize the basic ammonia building block in nitrogen fertilizers. The mining, manufacture, and international transport of phosphates and potash all depend on oil.

The Energy use and economical analysis of wheat production in Iran: A case study from Ardabil province has details about the energy efficiency of food production. In terms of total energy equivalents the following table summarizes the production of wheat in the study:

Inputs (MJ/ha) - 47,078
  • Human Labour - 317
  • Machinery - 4,574
  • Diesel fuel - 12,267
  • Chemical fertilizers - 14,654
  • Farmyard manure - 4,575
  • Chemicals - 260
  • Water for irrigation - 4,230
  • Seeds - 6,201
Outputs (MJ/ha) - 92,786
  • Grain - 66,368 (4,515 kg)
  • Straw - 26,418 (2,113 kg)

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Do Fossil Fuels Have A Sustainable Future?


Check out these recent speeches and papers on the Energy Crisis by Matthew R. Simmons on the web site of Simmons & Company who is the only independent investment bank specializing in the entire spectrum of the energy industry. Some examples:
  • How Did Our Energy Hole Get So Deep?
  • Two Energy Oxymorons: 1. Energy Independence 2. Energy Security
  • Have We "Peaked?"
  • Is There Light At The End Of The Dark Tunnel?
  • Investing During A World-Class Crisis
  • Do Fossil Fuels Have A Sustainable Future?
  • Planning In A Most Uncertain Environment: The Energy Challenges In 2009 And Beyond
  • The Oil Pricing Roller-Coaster: How It Impacts Energy Investment
  • The Risk Of Misjudging Peak Oil: A Real Physical Crisis
  • The Era Of Cheap Oil Is Over

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Oil - The Long Goodbye


The Foreign Policy has published a special report on Oil - The Long Goodbye.

It's Still the One (by Daniel Yergin)

Oil's very future is being seriously questioned, debated, and challenged. The author of an acclaimed history explains why, just as we need more oil than ever, it is changing faster than we can keep up with.

Subpriming the Pump (by Mahmoud A. El-Gamal and Amy Myers Jaffe)

Oil wealth used to hurt only those who had it. Now, it’s hurting everyone.

Don't Be Crude (by Prince Turki al-Faisal)

Why Barack Obama's energy-independence talk is just demagoguery.

Scenes from the Violent Twilight of Oil (by Peter Maass)

It succors and drowns human life. And for the last eight years, oil—and the people and places that make it—was my obsession.

The Great Pipeline Opera (by Daniel Freifeld)

Inside the European pipeline fantasy that became a real-life gas war with Russia.

Seven Myths About Alternative Energy (by Michael Grunwald)

As the world looks around anxiously for an alternative to oil, energy sources such as biofuels, solar, and nuclear seem like they could be the magic ticket. They're not.

Is a Green World a Safer World? (by David J. Rothkopf)

A guide to the coming green geopolitical crises.

The Devil's Excrement (by Moisés Naím)

Can oil-rich countries avoid the resource curse?

Monday, August 24, 2009

World Energy Use by Fuel

New Scientist has a topic guide on Energy and Fuels. Their nice infographics shows World Energy use by fuel type (oil, coal, gas, biomass, nuclear, hidro) and usage (transport, electricity, industry and residential/other).


The Energy and Fuels instant expert article discusses the coming energy crisis, and the new technologies that could save us from it, in New Scientist's beginner's guide.