The End of Oil as We Know It - 2010 ASPO-USA Conference

Global Energy Experts Agree: We are Facing the End of Oil as We Know It WASHINGTON (October 12, 2010): Economists, activists, technical experts and policymakers from across the political spectrum gathered here, October 7-9, to discuss the global energy crisis. After 150 years of oil extraction; most major oil exporting nations are well past their supply peaks, defined by scientists as “Peak Oil.” At the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas’ (ASPO-USA) sixth annual conference speakers offered a single, coherent picture of a world unprepared to encounter energy limits, petroleum scarcity and the inevitable—and possibly unprecedented—rise in prices. “We are on the brink of a major energy crisis,” stated Jim Baldauf, President of ASPO-USA. “The era of low-cost, easy to get oil has come to an end. Yet, our society is heavily dependent on oil and we have no contingency plan. It is our goal every year to bring together the world’s best global energy experts to grapple with solutions to this catastrophic situation and discuss the future.”

The presentation files of the 2010 World Oil Conference have been posted on the aspo-usa web site including:

• The Impending World Energy Mess Keynote Presentation by Robert L. Hirsch
• Economy & Energy by Chris Martenson
• Energy and Financial Crisis by Nicole Foss of The Automatic Earth
• The End of Investment by John Michael Greer of The Archdruid Report
• Where are we now? by André Angelantoni of postpeakliving.com
• & more
  

Can Oil Production Meet Rising Global Demand?

On October 7, 2010, the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) held a briefing on challenges facing the oil industry to keep pace with rising global demand, and the potential implications for oil prices, national security, and the world economy. Numerous sources project demand for liquid fuels to rise to historically unprecedented levels once the global economy recovers from the recent recession. Global oil production, meanwhile, has leveled off since 2005, real oil prices have roughly doubled, and spare capacity has tightened, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Potential constraints on global oil production have raised concerns among industry observers, military leaders, and policymakers. This briefing examined the economic, technical, and political factors that influence the rate at which oil is extracted and processed, and how patterns of global oil production are changing.

Can Oil Production Meet Rising Global Demand?

Some Highlights from Speaker Presentations

• The challenge facing world oil production is not a problem of how much oil is in the ground (i.e. resources), but rather the rate at which oil can be economically recovered from proven reserves. That rate is constrained by a complex combination of economic, technical, geologic, and geopolitical factors.
• The International Energy Agency projects that production of conventional oil from currently developed fields will decline by 20-30 million barrels per day by 2020. Meanwhile, global demand is projected to rise from approximately 85 million barrels per day at present to nearly 100 million barrels per day by 2020.
• To date, growth in estimated world oil reserves has kept up with growth in global consumption. Most of this increase, however, has been from adjustments in the estimates of existing reserves. The rate of discovery of new oil fields has been dropping steadily since the 1960s, and is now well below the rate of global consumption.

Making Sense of the Financial Crisis in the Era of Peak Oil

Nicole Foss of the Automatic Earth has delivered a very interesting presentation at the Transition Network Conference 2010 in the UK.

Peak Oil and the collapse of global Ponzi finance are a “perfect storm” of converging phenomena that threaten to sink our age of prosperity through wealth destruction, social discontent, and global conflict. Nicole will describe how our current financial system is an unsustainable credit bubble grounded in “Ponzi dynamics,” or the logic of the pyramid scheme. She warns that most people are woefully unprepared to face the consequences of the devastating deflation that is now unfolding.

Check out the following comments about Making Sense of the Financial Crisis in the Era of Peak Oil

• My Conference – Shaun Chamberlin on Stoneleigh’s peak oil/finance talk
• Nicole Foss: A Century of Challenges

Conference on Ecomonic Degrowth Presentations

From Friday 26 to Monday 29 March 2010 the Second International Degrowth Conference took place at the historic building of ‘Universidad de Barcelona'. 500 scientists, civil society members and practionners from more than 40 countries attended the conference.

Thirty years ago, Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen published a book in French with the title “Demain la Décroissance” (Degrowth Tomorrow) (1979). The organizers of the Economic Degrowth Conference says, “Aujourd’hui la Décroissance” (Degrowth today). The economic crisis of 2008-09 brings a new perspective. Economic degrowth can be good for the environment but it must be socially sustainable.

The 2nd international conference on economic degrowth for ecological sustainability and social equity followed from the first international conference (Paris, April 2008), that took place with the support of the European Society for Ecological Economics, Club of Rome (Brussels/Europe), Telecom Sud-Paris and SERI (Sustainable Europe Research Institute)

Conference Presentations

Managing degrowth: Employment, Security and the Economy under a Degrowth trajectory

• Blake Alcott: Degrowth and ‘unemployment’; Guaranteed jobs?
• Gjalt Huppes & Ruben Huele: Degrowth with an aging population; increasing leisure for improving the environment. The key role of pensions and their funding
• Richard Douthwaite: Why the global debt burden means there will be no recovery
• Colin C.Williams & Richard White: Transcending the depiction of market and non-market labour practices; implications for degrowth

Beyond Sustainable Development: Sustainable Degrowth towards a Steady-State Economy

• Brian Czech: The Chicken/Egg Spiral; "Reconciling" the Conflict Between Economic Growth and Environmental Protection with Technological Progress
• Daniel W. O’Neill: Measuring progress towards a steady state economy
• Ernest Garcia: Sociology and de-growth: social change, entropy and evolution in a way-down era
• Nicholas A. Ashford: Pathways to Sustainable Development; Co-optimizing Economic Welfare, Employment and Environment
• Ernest Garcia: Sociology and de-growth; social change, entropy and evolution in a way-down era
• Jacques Lauriol: L’Economie de la Fonctionnalité; Une voie nouvelle pour une décroissance soutenable

Degrowth, Capitalist Institutions and Democracy

• Pascal van Griethuysen : Implementing Degrowth; Evolutionary Economic Perspectives:
• Barbara Muraca: Growth, Degrowth, and Justice; A scrutiny of ethical and anthropological assumptions in growth and degrowth

Growth is unsustainable. Long live degrowth?

• E. Bilancini & S. D’Alessandro: Happy Degrowth vs Unhappy Growth
• Joaquim Sempere: Degrowth; Proposals and Questions

Making it real. Practical transformations towards degrowth

• Jørgen Stig Nørgård: Sustainable degrowth through more amateur economy
• Dick Urban Vestbro: Saving by Sharing – Collective Housing for Sustainable Lifestyles
• David Barkin: Constructing alternative degrowth strategies; Experience from rural communities in Latin America

America's Energy Future and PickensPlan

Milken Institute Global Conference Panel:
Ted Turner and T. Boone Pickens on America's Energy Future

Speakers:

• T. Boone Pickens, Entrepreneur and Philanthropist; Founder, BP Capital
• Ted Turner, Chairman, Turner Enterprises Inc.

Moderator:

• Michael Milken, Chairman, Milken Institute

Ted Turner didn't mince words: "We've gotta get off the Titanic before it sails." He and T. Boone Pickens argued passionately that America has to start weaning itself off foreign oil imports — and do it now.

Their session began with a recap of how president after president has pledged to achieve energy independence, while the percentage of U.S. oil imported from foreign sources in volatile regions has continued to climb. Today the nation imports some two-thirds of its oil.

"We're paying for both sides of the war," said Pickens, insisting that oil money sent to the Middle East is paying for terrorists and the Taliban. He expressed optimism that President Obama has pledged to end oil imports from the Middle East within 10 years, but was quick to add: "We have to remind him." Pickens pointed out that the U.S. represents about 4 percent of world's population but consumes 25 percent of the world's oil, an equation that's just not sustainable. He called for transitioning the nation's fleet of 18-wheelers to natural gas immediately.


The big question of the day is whether Washington has the political will to effect a fundamental change in America's energy consumption. Turner expressed worry about the influence of special interests and argued that the U.S. has to end oil and coal subsidies to level the playing field for renewables.

Pickens pointed out that China is already moving to ensure its energy independence, and the United States can, too. He believes strongly that we will see a strong energy bill passed this year or next, noting how many millions had signed onto the Pickens Plan online. He believes the grassroots effort can make something happen — and "scare the hell out of those politicians."

Both men agreed that time is of the essence and acting is crucial to our children's livelihoods and lives. Reducing America's reliance on foreign oil, transitioning to natural gas and turning to renewable sources will be a win all around, in terms of national security, economic stability, jobs, cleaning up the environment and fighting climate change.

"We have to go to wind and solar eventually," said Turner. "Why not now? . . . Let's do the right thing and we'll all get rich!"

Watch the full panel discussion online at Milken Institute's web page.

The Crisis

Our dependence on foreign oil forms the intersection of the three most critical issues America currently faces: the economy, the environment and our national security.

The Pickens Plan

America is blessed with the world's greatest wind power corridor and enormous reserves of clean natural gas. The Pickens Plan utilizes these tremendous resources to build a bridge to the future — a blueprint to reduce foreign oil dependence by harnessing domestic energy alternatives and buying time for us to develop even greater new technologies and distribution systems.

The Plan calls for building new wind generation facilities that will produce 20% of our nation's electricity while using our abundant domestic natural gas supply as a transportation fuel as well as for power generation. The combination of these domestic energies can replace more than one-third of our foreign oil imports. And we can do it all in 10 years.

Earth Day 2010

Earth Day is a day designed to inspire awareness and appreciation for the Earth's environment. It was founded by U.S. Senator Gaylord Nelson as an environmental teach-in held on April 22, 1970 and is celebrated in more than 175 countries every year. Earth Day is celebrated in spring in the Northern Hemisphere and autumn in the Southern Hemisphere. Many communities celebrate Earth Week, an entire week of activities focused on environmental issues. While the first Earth Day was focused entirely on the United States, an organization launched by Denis Hayes—the original national coordinator in 1970—took it international in 1990 and organized events in 141 nations.

Earth Day 2010

Earth Day 2010 will coincide with the World People's Conference on Climate Change, to be held in Cochabamba, Bolivia, and with the International Year of Biodiversity.

The World People's Conference on Climate Change and the Rights of Mother Earth, better known by its Spanish acroynm CMPCC, is a conference organized by the Bolivian government to be held in Cochabamba, Bolivia April 19-22, 2010. Its objectives are the following:

1. Analyze the structural and systemic causes of climate change and propose substantive measures that facilitate the well-being of all mankind in harmony with nature.
2. Discuss and agree the draft Universal Declaration of rights of Mother Earth.
3. To agree on proposals for new commitments to the Kyoto Protocol and projects for a COP Decision under the United Nations Framework for Climate Change that will guide future actions in those countries that are engaged with life during climate change negotiation
4. Work on the organization of a people’s world referendum on climate change.
5. Analyze and draw up a plan of action to advance the establishment of a Climate Justice Tribunal;
6. Define strategies for action and mobilization in defense of life against climate change and for mother earth rights.

Feasta Tipping Point Report and the New Emergency Conference

Feasta aims to identify the characteristics (economic, cultural and environmental) of a truly sustainable society, articulate how the necessary transition can be effected and promote the implementation of the measures required for this purpose.

Feasta has released a new report Tipping Point: Near-Term Systemic Implications of a Peak in Global Oil Production, by David Korowicz of Feasta and the Risk/Resilience Network, is now available for download. The report argues that the defining dynamic of our civilisation is the withdrawal of energy from a complex and integrated system adapted only to growing. A managed "de-growth" is impossible; what is required is rapid emergency planning coupled with a plan for longer-term adaptation.

Feasta organized The New Emergeny Conference last year. The videos of all of the presentations from the conference can now be viewed for free on the conference website.

This conference, marking Feasta's tenth anniversary, analysed the systems and the mindsets that have steered the world onto its grotesquely unsustainable current path. Discussions focussed on the new systems (financial, energy, food) and ways of thinking that are urgently required to correct the situation and bring about a rapid transition to a more secure future. Many of the ideas explored were Feasta's. Others were presented by international speakers who broadly share Feasta's analysis of what needs to be done to build a truly sustainable world.

That's it for the 100th post on the Energy Crash blog.

ASPO 2009 International Peak Oil Conference

It’s been a tumultuous year for the price of oil and the worldwide economy in general. While the signature issue of oil depletion has faded from the headlines, and demand dropped due to economic malaise, the bottom line remains unchanged: our world may be at, or very close to, peak oil production. What are the next steps for the industry and for peak oil advocates?

Marshalling the expertise of key financial analysts, international oil industry executives, and peak oil observers, the 5th annual ASPO-USA 2009 International Peak Oil Conference in Denver presents three days of information-packed events plus a Saturday pre-event workshop designed to stimulate discussion amongst a wide audience of people in business, public policy, and anyone concerned with resource supply issues.

Confirmed speakers include:

• Mr. Kjell Aleklett, Uppsala University, Sweden
• Mr. Terry Backer, State of Connecticut
• Dr. Albert Bartlett, University of Colorado, Boulder
• Mr. Arthur E Berman, Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
• Dr. Jason Bradford, Vital Farmland LP
• Mr. Jeffrey J Brown, Independent Petroleum Geologist
• Dr. Susan Capalbo, Oregon State University
• Mr. Dave Cohen, ASPO-USA
• Mr. Peter A Dea, Cirque Resources LP
• Mr. Jeffrey S Dunn, Southern California Association of Governments
• Mr. Ken Eklund, Writerguy
• Ms. RoseAnne Franco, PFC Energy
• Mr. Jeremy J Gilbert, Barrelmore Ltd
• Mr. Daniel Gomez, President of ASPO Spain
• Mr. Nate Hagens, University Of Vermont, Editor of The Oil Drum
• Mr. Jim Hansen, Ravenna Capital Management
• Mr. Richard Heinberg, Post Carbon Institute
• Mayor John Hickenlooper, Denver, Colorado
• Dr. Robert Hirsch, MISI
• Mr. Eric Janszen, iTulip, Inc.
• Mr. Byron W King, Agora Financial, LLC
• Dr. Tom Konrad, AltEnergyStocks.com
• Mr. Steven Kopits, Douglas Westwood LLC
• Mr. Rembrandt Koppelaar , The Oil Drum
• Mr. Hannes Kunz, IIER, Zurich
• Dr. Chuck Kutscher, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
• Hon. Richard D Lamm, University of Denver
• Mr. Ray Leonard, Hyperdynamics Corporation
• Dr. Feng Lianyong, School of Business Administration in the China University of Petroleum, Beijing(CUPB)
• Mr. Peter Maass, The New York Times Magazine
• Ms. Lisa Margonelli, New America Foundation
• Dr. Chris Martenson, Creator, "The Crash Course"
• Dr. Brian Maschhoff, The Oil Drum
• Dr. Vincent Matthews, Colorado Geological Survey
• Dr. Marcio R Mello, HRT Petroleum
• Mr. Rick Munroe, National Farmers Union of Canada
• Mr. David J Murphy, The Oil Drum, EROI Institute, SUNY-ESF
• Mr. Pat Murphy, Arthur Morgan Institute for Community Solutions
• Mr. Thomas A Petrie, Merrill Lynch
• Mr. Kevin Phillips, Commentator and Author of Bad Money
• Mr. Scott Pugh, U.S. Department of Homeland Security
• Mr. Simon Ratcliffe, Department for International Development
• Governor Bill Ritter, State of Colorado
• Mr. Adam Robinson, RBS Sempra Commodities
• Mr. Mike Rodgers, PFC Energy
• Mr. Carlos Rossi, Venezuelan Hydrocarbon Association (AVHI)
• Dr. Kyle Saunders, Colorado State University
• Dr. Paul Sears, Natural Resources Canada
• Mr. David Shields, Pemex: The Oil Reform
• Mr. Matt Simmons, Simmons & Co. International
• Mr. Chris Skrebowski, Energy Institute, London
• Mr. Bengt Soderbergh, Global Energy Systems
• Mr. Allen Stevens, Stifel-Nicolaus
• Mr. John Theobald, University of California, Davis
• Ms. Gail E Tverberg, The Oil Drum
• Mr. Randy Udall, ASPO-USA
• Mr. Jeff Vail, Davis Graham & Stubbs LLP
• Ms. Heidi VanGenderen, Worldwatch Institute
• Mr. Richard Vodra, Spire Investment Partners
• Mr. David Wann, Affluenza; Superbia
• Mr. Edward Warner, Expedition Oil Company
• Dr. Michael Webber, University of Texas, Austin
• Mr. Steve Andrews, ASPO-USA
• Mr. David L Bowden, ASPO-USA
• Mrs. Debbie Cook, City of Huntington Beach
• Mr. Dick Lawrence, ASPO-USA co-founder and Board member
• Ms. Sally Odland, ASPO-USA Advisory Board