Book: The Post Carbon Reader

The Post Carbon Reader
Managing the 21st Century’s Sustainability Crises

Edited by Richard Heinberg and Daniel Lerch
In the 20th century, cheap and abundant energy brought previously unimaginable advances in health, wealth, and technology, and fed an explosion in population and consumption. But this growth came at an incredible cost. Climate change, peak oil, freshwater depletion, species extinction, and a host of economic and social problems now challenge us as never before. The Post Carbon Reader features articles by some of the world’s most provocative thinkers on the key drivers shaping this new century, from renewable energy and urban agriculture to social justice and systems resilience. This unprecedented collection takes a hard-nosed look at the interconnected threats of our global sustainability quandary—as well as the most promising responses. The Post Carbon Reader is a valuable resource for policymakers, college classrooms, and concerned citizens.

Table of Contents

Preface Richard Heinberg and Daniel Lerch, Editors
Foreword Asher Miller

Part I - Introduction
1. Foundation Concepts

• Richard Heinberg: "Beyond the Limits to Growth"
• Richard Heinberg: "What is Sustainability?"
• Bill Rees, "Thinking 'Resilience'"

Part II - Planet
2. Climate

• Bill McKibben, selection from Eaarth
• Richard Douthwaite, "The international response to climate change "
• Mark Sandler, SIDEBAR: "Cap and Dividend in the U.S."
• David Orr, selection from Down to the Wire

3. Water

• Sandra Postel, "Water: Adapting to a new normal"

4. Biodiversity

• Stephanie Mills, "Peak Nature?"

Part III - Civilization
5. Food

• Michael Bomford, "Energy and the food system"
• Wes Jackson, transcript from 1/25/10 presentation at Univ. of California - Berkeley
• Erika Allen, transcript from 1/24/10 conversation: "Growing community food systems"

6. Population

• Bill Ryerson, "Population: The Multiplier of Everything Else"

7. Culture & behavior

• Peter Whybrow, "Dangerously Addictive"
• Gloria Flora, "Remapping Relationships: Humans in nature"
• Bill Rees, "The Human Nature of Unsustainability"

Part IV - Modern Society
8. Energy

• Daniel Lerch, selection from Post Carbon Cities
• David Hughes, "Hydrocarbons in North America"
• David Fridley, "Nine Challenges of Alternative Energy"
• Tom Whipple, "Peak Oil and the Economy"

9. Economy

• Josh Farley, "Ecological Economics"
• Richard Douthwaite, SIDEBAR: "Money and Energy"
• Michael Shuman, "The Competitiveness of Local Living Economies"

10. Cities, towns, and suburbs

• Warren Karlenzig, "The Death of Sprawl"
• Deborah Popper and Frank Popper, "Smart Decline in Post-Carbon Cities"
• Hillary Brown, "Buildings"
• John Kaufmann "Local Government in a time of Peak Oil and Climate Change"

11. Transportation

• Richard Gilbert and Anthony Perl, "Post-carbon mobility"

12. Waste

• Bill Sheehan and Helen Spiegelman, "Climate Change, Peak Oil and the End of Waste"

13. Health

• Cindy Parker and Brian Schwartz, "Human Health and Well-Being in an Era of Energy Scarcity and Climate Change"

14. Education

• Zenobia Barlow and Michael Stone, "Smart by Nature: Schooling for Sustainability"
• Nancy Lee Wood, "Community Colleges"

Part V - Next Steps
15. Building resilience

• Chris Martenson, "Personal preparation"
• Rob Hopkins "Transitioning community"

16. Vision for a post-carbon century

• Asher Miller, "What Now? The Path Forward Begins with One Step"

Bogotá: Building A Sustainable City

Bogota: Building a Sustainable City - documentary by PBS e2 series. Narrated by Brad Pitt. During his tenure as mayor of Bogota, Colombia, Enrique Penalosa was both revered and scorned for his urban planning and transportation policies. His public works projects, which largely favored the pedestrian experience, were unlike anything previously built in Bogota. Penalosa describes the environmental and social importance of minimizing automobile culture.

Running on Empty - Video

What if tomorrow, everyone’s car disappeared.

A Video by Ross Ching inspired by Matt Logue’s Empty LA photographs.

Check out the details here.

Google's Clean Energy Initiatives

Powering a Clean Energy Revolution @ Google

RE C

Business as usual will not deliver low-cost, clean, renewable energy soon enough to avoid devastating climate change. In fact, even producing large amounts of electricity from renewable sources won't make a difference unless we can find a way to make it cheaper than electricity from coal. That's why in 2007 Google.org launched RE C, an initiative aimed at creating utility-scale renewable electricity that is cheaper than coal.

RechargeIT
Google.org's RechargeIT initiative is aimed at accelerating the adoption of plug-in vehicles and "smart charging" applications. Transportation related greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for roughly one third of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States and at least 20% globally. We believe that plug-in hybrids capable of running on electricity are the best near term option for significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector.

Google PowerMeter
Google believes consumers have a right to access detailed information about their home electricity usage throughout the day - to help them save money and make smart energy decisions. Google is developing a prototype product called Google PowerMeter that allows people to see detailed home energy information in near real-time right on their computer.
Combined with their first device partner the TED 5000 - The Energy Detective device from Energy Inc. can help you understand your electricity usage to save energy and money.

Clean Energy 2030
The U.S. has a real opportunity to transform our economy from one running on fossil fuels to one largely based on clean energy. The energy team at Google has been crunching the numbers to see how we could greatly reduce fossil fuel use by 2030. Our analysis suggests a potential path to weaning the U.S. off of coal and oil for electricity generation by 2030 (with some remaining use of natural gas as well as nuclear), and cutting oil use for cars by 40%. Over 22 years this plan could generate billions of dollars in savings and help create millions of green jobs.

Solar Panels
In the summer of 2007, with an eye toward bringing solar power into the mainstream, Google switched on one of the largest corporate solar installations in the United States at our Mountain View headquarters. Their 9,212 solar panels produce 1.6 MW of electricity, which is enough to power approximately 1,000 average California homes. It reduces their carbon emissions and makes good business sense too; the installation will pay for itself in about 7.5 years.

Volvo: "We all know that oil is running out"

Demand for oil to outstrip supply within two years
A new article on Perth Now by Paul Syvret


Rising oil prices pose a grave threat to global economic recovery, according to experts. The fear has been expressed by the automobile industry. This week in Perth, Volvo's head of product planning, Lex Kerssemakers, said "we all know that oil is running out".

"We need to find alternative solutions and though we are aware of the alternatives - LPG, CNG, ethanol, electric and so on - we have to introduce these to the market, he said. "If we don't do it now, we won't be ready in five years when oil may be prohibitively expensive".

Mr Kerssemakers said Volvo would have an electric car on the world market in 2012 that would use less than 1.5 litres/100km of fuel - about one-tenth of that used by a current V8-engined sedan. Volvo is not alone in the race to produce more fuel-efficient vehicles - all car companies are either developing alternative engined or fuelled vehicles by themselves or in partnership with other car companies that, in many cases, were once their fierce rivals.

[via peakoil.net]

The Best Peak Oil Investments Series by Tom Konrad

Tom Konrad is posting a new series of investment advise on the Alternative Energy Stocks blog which has also appeared on Seeking Alpha. Here is a collection of his Best Peak Oil Investment articles so far:

• Peak Oil Investments I'm Putting My Money On: Part I, Biofuels
• Peak Oil Investments I'm Putting My Money On: Part II, Hydrogen and Vehicle Electrification
• Peak Oil Investments I'm Putting My Money On: Part III, Natural Gas Vehicles
• Peak Oil Investments I'm Putting My Money On: Part IV, Converting Coal, Natural Gas to Liquids
• Peak Oil Investments I'm Putting My Money On: Part V, Algae
• Peak Oil Investments I'm Putting My Money On: Part VI, Barriers to Substitution
• Peak Oil Investments I'm Putting My Money On: Part VII, Peak Substitutes?
• Peak Oil Investments I'm Putting My Money On: Part VIII, Alternative Fuel Report Card
• Peak Oil Investments I'm Putting My Money On: Part IX, The Methadone Economy

35.5 MPG by 2016 - New US Milage Standards

U.S. Issues Limits on Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Cars

[via The New York Times]

The federal government took its first formal step to regulate global warming pollution on Thursday by issuing final rules for greenhouse gas emissions for automobiles and light trucks.

The move ends a 30-year battle between regulators and automakers but sets the stage for what may be a bigger fight over climate-altering emissions from stationary sources like power plants, steel mills and refineries.

The new tailpipe rules, jointly written by the Transportation Department and the Environmental Protection Agency, set emissions and mileage standards that would translate to a combined fuel economy average for new vehicles of 35.5 miles per gallon by 2016. Most drivers will see lower mileage figures in actual driving.

The rules are expected to cut emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases about 30 percent from 2012 to 2016.

Officials said the program would save the owner of an average 2016 car about $3,000 in fuel over the life of the vehicle and eliminate emissions of nearly a billion tons of greenhouse gases over the lives of all regulated vehicles.

Reaching the new efficiency figure will add about $1,000 to the cost of the average new car by 2016, according to industry and government estimates.

The tailpipe rule reflects a truce between the auto industry and state and federal governments, which have been feuding over emissions and mileage standards since the 1970s. It is the first time the federal Clean Air Act has been applied to carbon dioxide and other global warming pollutants.

Our Future and the End of the Oil Age: Building Resilience in a Resource-Constrained World

A new presentation from ClubOrlov by Dmitry Orlov:



In conclusion

• Many people can't be persuaded by either fact or reason. Let's hope you are not one of them.
• Running out the clock on our current living arrangement is a bad idea: the longer you wait, the fewer options you will be left with
• A rather exciting time to be alive, wouldn't you say?

Infrastructure: Priorities and painful decisions

Christine Patton is a former risk and process management consultant; and currently Co-chairs the Transition Town OKC initiating group. She has a nice blog "Peak Oil Hausfrau". Check out her blog entry on the difficult decisions we need to face to maintain the most important infrastructure we built. Here is a short extract:

When cheap energy reigned, we built acres of infrastructure, without giving too much thought to the energy, materials, and money that we would need to maintain and operate these constructions. Now, we have come to completely depend on these systems, most of which did not exist in their current form one hundred years ago:

• Roads, highways and bridges,
• Water and sewage systems,
• Housing and buildings (schools, hospitals),
• Electric grid and power plants,
• Landfills and hazardous waste disposal systems,
• Dams and canals,
• Public transit (including subways, buses and railways),
• Internet and communications, and
• Energy extraction, processing, and delivery systems.

The crumbling of this legacy of infrastructure is one of the many day-to-day living problems that we face over the next fifty to a hundred years. Unlike our natural systems, which can regenerate themselves (if not destroyed completely), and which are self-perpetuating and self-healing, our built infrastructure requires regular maintenance and investment. Maintenance depends on a base of knowledgeable personnel with access to information about the systems, affordable materials and energy, factories that produce needed parts, and regular investment to fix what's broken or decaying.

Things break. Water lines crack, electric lines snap, and potholes appear magically overnight. Infrastructure is especially vulnerable in severe weather and during natural disasters, but also from lack of regular maintenance and from accidents, and of course from willful malfeasance. We currently have the capacity to come in after a disaster, clean up, and repair the damage. Will we be able to do so when everything costs twice as much and when state, municipal and corporate revenues have been cut in half?

This is reality. With a future of decreasing energy supplies, we will have less and less available to maintain the systems that support our globalized, high-energy, consumer lifestyle, on top of the resources we need to meet our daily needs. We will need to decide where to spend our money, our materials, our energy, and our manpower. How will we prioritize? Will it be haphazardly, fixing whatever is broken, patching things together until the point that resources are no longer available? Will we only maintain systems in the places of the rich and powerful?

The Oil Crunch - A wake-up call for the UK economy

• Taskforce warns Britain is unprepared for significant risk to companies and consumers
• Poorest to be hit hardest by price rises for travel, food, heating and consumer goods
• New policies must be priority for whoever wins the General Election
• Recommended packages include legislation, new technologies and behaviour-change incentives
• Fundamental change in demand patterns triggered by emerging economy countries

London, 10 February, 2010: A group of leading business people today call for urgent action to prepare the UK for Peak Oil. The second report of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) finds that oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price volatility will destabilise economic, political and social activity potentially by 2015. Peak Oil refers to the point where the highest practicable rate of global oil production has been achieved and from which future levels of production will either plateau, or begin to diminish. This means an end to the era of cheap oil.

The report, “The Oil Crunch - a wake-up call for the UK economy”, urges the formation of a coalition of government, business and consumers to address the issue.

The Taskforce states the impact of Peak Oil will include sharp increases in the cost of travel, food, heating and retail goods. It finds that the transport sector will be particularly hard hit, with more vulnerable members of society the first to feel the impact. The Taskforce warns that the UK must not be caught out by the oil crunch in the same way it was with the credit crunch and states that policies to address Peak Oil must be a priority for the new government formed after the election.

Having assessed the systemic changes caused by the global economic recession, coupled with the projected growth from non-OECD countries, ITPOES predicts Peak Oil will occur within the next decade, potentially by 2015 at less than 95 million barrels per day. (In 2008, production levels were 85 million barrels per day.) The study finds that the recession has delayed the oil crunch by two years. This provides invaluable time to plan for a future which will see structural increases in oil prices coupled with shortages and increased market volatility. The UK will be particularly badly hit by these factors with a tightening of supply leading to greater oil import dependency, rising and volatile prices, inflationary pressures and the risk of disruption to the transport system.

Key recommendations from the report include the acceleration of the “green transport revolution” to see the ongoing introduction of lower carbon technology and trials of sustainable bio fuels. This would cover private vehicles, but also extend to the general transport network, with the government urged not to cut investment in public transport. A focus on new clean technologies should be combined with wide scale behavioural change promoted through incentives and education to produce a modal shift to greener modes of transport.

ITPOES’ membership includes Arup, Foster + Partners, Scottish and Southern Energy, Solar Century, Stagecoach Group and Virgin Group. The report will be launched at an event at the Royal Society with presentations from Richard Branson, Founder of Virgin Group; Philip Dilley, Chairman of Arup; Ian Marchant, CEO of Scottish and Southern Energy; Jeremy Leggett, Chairman of Solarcentury; Brian Souter, CEO of Stagecoach Group; and Will Whitehorn, President of Virgin Galactic.

The Taskforce recognises that oil demand in the OECD area (developed countries) is now flat or declining but also recognises that demand in non-OECD (developing countries) continues to expand rapidly, having already recovered from the recession. Demand in the non-OECD areas already accounts for 45% of global oil demand and is expected to reach 50% by the middle of the decade.

The report issues a range of recommendations including:

General policies:

• Government, local authorities and business must face up to the Peak Oil threat and put contingency plans in place
• A package of policies are required to deal with the economic, financial and social impact of potential high oil prices
• There is a need to accelerate the green industrial revolution

Transport:

• Government support should be boosted for alternative technological solutions and associated infrastructure, such as electric vehicles
• Policies and fiscal measures to support and incentivise a shift from the traditional car to more fuel- and carbon-efficient modes of transport to be established
• Government investment in public transport must be maintained

Power generation and distribution policies:

• Government must provide a stable pro-investment regulatory and political climate
• The nation’s power generation and transmission distribution infrastructure must be changed to adapt to new demand patterns, price spikes and supply interruption

Retail and agriculture:

• Measures must be taken to protect the public, particularly the most disadvantaged, from the impact of rising fuel costs on food and other consumer goods prices

(Fly Around) The World Without Fossil Fuels

Bertrand Piccard circumnavigated the Earth in a hot-air balloon. Now he wants to circle it in an airplane powered only by solar energy.

For the dawn of a new decade, adventurer Bertrand Piccard in this TED Talk offers us a challenge: Find motivation in what seems impossible. He shares his own plans to do what many say can't be done -- to fly around the world, day and night, in a solar-powered aircraft.



Bertrand Piccard was born in a family of firsts. His father, Jacques, together with Dan Walsh of the US, was the first man to reach the deepest point of the world's oceans, the Mariana Trench, in 1960. Almost 30 years earlier, his grandfather, Auguste, first ballooned into the stratosphere. While they went up and down, Bertrand went horizontal and in 1999, together with Brian Jones of Britain, completed the first-ever nonstop balloon circumnavigation of the globe, flying more than 45,000 km in 20 days.

Now, in a hangar near Zurich, a team of scientists and engineers around Piccard and co-pilot André Borschberg is building Solar Impulse, an unconventional aircraft designed to circumnavigate the Earth powered by solar energy, flying day and night (yes, when the Sun is "off"). The just-unveiled prototype has the weight of a car but the wingspan of an Airbus. Piccard hopes for test flights in the first half of 2010, and possibly a long flight in 2011, before attempting to fly around the Earth.

In a world depending on fossil energies, the Solar Impulse project is a paradox, almost a provocation: it aims to have an airplane take off and fly autonomously, day and night, propelled uniquely by solar energy, right round the world without fuel or pollution. An unachievable goal without pushing back the current technological limits in all fields...

In Transition 1.0 Movie - From Oil Dependence To Local Resilience

‘In Transition’ is the first detailed film about the Transition movement filmed by those that know it best, those who are making it happen on the ground. The Transition movement is about communities around the world responding to peak oil and climate change with creativity, imagination and humour, and setting about rebuilding their local economies and communities. It is positive, solutions focused, viral and fun.

‘In Transition’ has been shown in communities around the world to enthusiastic audiences, and is now available as a special edition 2 disc DVD set, beautifully packaged in entirely compostable packaging, featuring the film itself (with subtitles in Deutsch, Español, Français, Italiano,and Nederlands) and an embarrassment of outtakes and extras, with interviews, films about Transition you’ve been searching high and low for quality copies of, and other gems. It is a must-have for anyone with an interest in this new take on responding to the challenges of the 21st century. You can watch the film, in full, here:

Community Resilience Toolkit

If your neighborhood association, church organization, city planning office, or community-based organization is interested in building a more resilient community, the Community Resilience Toolkit by Bay Localize is for you.

The Bay Localize Community Resilience Toolkit guides groups in leading workshops to plan for resilience in their communities while decreasing reliance on fossil fuels. It is designed for community groups that would like to get involved in making a difference in their neighborhood, city, or county. The Toolkit offers Bay Area-specific resources and action ideas in six key sectors: food, water, energy, transportation and housing, jobs and economy, and civic services.

Why Resilience?

We live in interesting times, with far-reaching tangible impacts on our communities. Many Bay Area communities struggle to meet their basic needs even in the best of times. Now we are facing three additional major threats to our well-being:

• Economic downturn has led to high levels of job loss and foreclosures. With lower tax revenue cities and counties are cutting back services, just when more people need a social safety net.
• Climate change will directly impact communities in the Bay Area as well as throughout the world. Our region will face rising sea levels (a danger if you live or work near the Bay), heat waves, decreased air quality, and long-term decreased availability of water and food. Impacts in other parts of the world are likely to be catastrophic due to widespread hurricanes, flooding, drought, and famine. We need to do all we can do decrease greenhouse gas emissions that make climate change worse.
• Peak oil means that we are nearing or have already passed the point at which we have used the majority of easily accessible oil in the world. As the global economy is so reliant on oil, rising oil prices makes everything else more expensive. Increased oil prices are predicted to spur higher inflation, economic contraction, growing unemployment, increased poverty, and increased violence at home and around the world.

We need creative ways to make sure our communities can meet the basic human needs of all residents, while reducing reliance on fossil fuels and protecting the health of our environment for our children. This is especially true for communities that are already struggling. In order to meet the human needs of all in our communities, we need to examine and change patterns of power and distribution of resources that contribute to inequities in our society.

Fortunately, we already have local resources to face these challenges in our communities. These assets include our knowledge and creativity, relationships, institutions, infrastructure, and natural resources. We can nurture, grow, and connect these resources in creative ways to make our communities strong and resilient enough to weather these challenges.

The Community Resilience Toolkit is available free of charge for registered users.

Peak Oil Preparation Wiki

The purpose of the Peak Oil Preparation wiki is to examine the ramifications of several possible post peak oil scenarios, as well collect and synthesize information relevant to peak oil preparation for both individuals and groups/organizations. Much of this information has been scattered in different places, including peak oil related email groups, websites and books. A wiki allows for massive collaboration and ease of adding new materials to keep the information updated.

The wiki was created very recently, so the outline is mostly an empty skeleton of topics. Please help and "give back to the web" by contributing. It will be a growing resource where you can archive relevant information you have collected. And, as more people contribute, it will become a more valuable resource over time.

Contents

• 1 What is "Peak Oil?" And why do I need to prepare for it?
  • 1.1 Possible post peak oil scenarios
    • 1.1.1 1. Scientific energy breakthrough / "technofix"
    • 1.1.2 2. Long oil production plateau and increasing reliance of renewable energy
    • 1.1.3 3. Gradual economic decline
    • 1.1.4 4. Fast economic crash
    • 1.1.5 5. Collapse of civilization
    • 1.1.6 Why predicting the future is very difficult
  • 1.2 Risk management strategies
• 2 How to contribute to this wiki
• 3 POSSIBLE CHANGES LIKELY AFTER PEAK OIL
  • 3.1 Transportation
    • 3.1.1 Less use of air transportation
    • 3.1.2 More use of trains
    • 3.1.3 More use of ships
  • 3.2 The economy
  • 3.3 Retreat from globalization -- re-localization
  • 3.4 Higher cost of food
  • 3.5 Resource conflicts and wars
  • 3.6 Changes in family relationships
  • 3.7 Recycling
  • 3.8 Changes in education
  • 3.9 Changes in employment and careers
• 4 PERSONAL PEAK OIL PREPARATION
  • 4.1 ADJUSTING AND ADAPTING TO THE "NEW NORMAL"
  • 4.2 COMMUNICATIONS
    • 4.2.1 Overview
    • 4.2.2 Phone, voice and text-messaging
    • 4.2.3 Internet
    • 4.2.4 CB Radio
    • 4.2.5 Short-wave Radio
  • 4.3 EDUCATION
    • 4.3.1 Overview
    • 4.3.2 Recommended self-sufficiency books
  • 4.4 ENERGY and ENERGY PRODUCTION
    • 4.4.1 Overview
    • 4.4.2 Electrical Generation
      • 4.4.2.1 Solar PV
      • 4.4.2.2 Gasoline generators
      • 4.4.2.3 Windmills
      • 4.4.2.4 Watermills
    • 4.4.3 Lighting
    • 4.4.4 Liquid Fuels
      • 4.4.4.1 Making biodiesel
  • 4.5 FINANCIAL
    • 4.5.1 Overview
    • 4.5.2 Employment
      • 4.5.2.1 Careers Post-Peak
      • 4.5.2.2 Banking
    • 4.5.3 Investing
  • 4.6 FOOD
    • 4.6.1 Overview
    • 4.6.2 Growing food / gardening
    • 4.6.3 Food preparation / cooking
    • 4.6.4 Food storage
      • 4.6.4.1 Food Dehydration
      • 4.6.4.2 Food Canning
  • 4.7 HEALTH and MEDICAL
    • 4.7.1 Overview
    • 4.7.2 Prescription drugs
    • 4.7.3 First Aid Supplies
  • 4.8 HOUSING
    • 4.8.1 Overview
    • 4.8.2 Making decisions about relocating
      • 4.8.2.1 Possible relocation areas
    • 4.8.3 Heating
    • 4.8.4 Cooling
    • 4.8.5 Fire fighting and prevention
    • 4.8.6 Home security
    • 4.8.7 Income from renting out rooms / Rental properties
    • 4.8.8 Family or group multiple-unit "compounds"
    • 4.8.9 Cohousing communities
    • 4.8.10 Eco-villages
    • 4.8.11 Emergency "Bugging Out" Preparations and Locations
  • 4.9 ISSUES RELATED TO SPECIFIC GROUPS
  • 4.10 POLITICAL and LEADERSHIP ISSUES
  • 4.11 PSYCHOLOGICAL, SOCIAL and COMMUNITY ISSUES
  • 4.12 RECREATION
  • 4.13 SANITATION
    • 4.13.1 Overview
    • 4.13.2 Temporary emergency toilets
    • 4.13.3 Composting of human waste
    • 4.13.4 Showering
  • 4.14 SECURITY AND SELF DEFENSE
  • 4.15 STORAGE -- GENERAL ISSUES
  • 4.16 TRASH AND RUBBISH DISPOSAL
  • 4.17 TRANSPORTATION
    • 4.17.1 Overview
    • 4.17.2 Bicycles
    • 4.17.3 Autos
    • 4.17.4 Public transportation
    • 4.17.5 Trains
    • 4.17.6 Boats / ships
    • 4.17.7 Air transportation
  • 4.18 WATER
    • 4.18.1 Overview
    • 4.18.2 Water purification
    • 4.18.3 Water collection and storage
    • 4.18.4 Water wells
    • 4.18.5 Hot Water: Solar Heating / Gas Heaters / etc.
• 5 LOCAL / COMMUNITY / REGIONAL PEAK OIL PREPARATION
• 6 BUSINESSES AND ORGANIZATIONS - PEAK OIL PREPARATION
  • 6.1 Overview
  • 6.2 Individual Proprietors
  • 6.3 Small Business
  • 6.4 Medium / Large Businesses
  • 6.5 Schools
  • 6.6 Colleges / Universities
  • 6.7 Hospitals and Health Care Organizations
• 7 NATIONAL PEAK OIL PREPARATION
  • 7.1 Overview
  • 7.2 Tax incentives for renewable energy
  • 7.3 Carbon taxes
  • 7.4 Carbon trading
  • 7.5 Government investments in basic renewable energy research
• 8 INTERNATIONAL / WORLD PEAK OIL PREPARATION
  • 8.1 Overview
  • 8.2 The Oil Depletion Protocol

Physical Limits to Large Scale Global Biomass Generation for Replacing Fossil Fuels

This is an extract of an interesting analysis from 2006 by Helmut Burkhardt, Professor of Physics Emeritus at the Ryerson University, Toronto.

In a coarse grain global analysis the average total power used by humans is given, and compared with total solar insolation on land. The theoretically possible, and the actual overall efficiency of the conversion of solar energy by technical and biological means is determined. The resulting limitations of biomass energy for replacing fossil fuels are considered. Other problems of energy farming are analyzed. Conclusions are drawn, and future energy policies are recommended.

Introduction

There is a world wide trend to switch from fossil fuels to biomass energy. While it may be useful to use biomass waste and energy farming in some locations, the large scale use of biomass to replace of fossil fuels is problematic and needs careful analysis. The first question is to see what the energy needs of humankind are.

Average Total Power Consumption

Humankind’s total primary energy consumption is some 470 EJ/a, which translates into an average total power of some 15 TW. With a world population of 6.5 billion people, we get for the average total power use is at present 2.3 kW per person.

The power consumption by sector is approximately 33% of total power for each, industry and commerce, households, and transportation; in per capita terms, the average world citizen consumes 800 W for each sector: transport, production/trade, and transportation.

Electricity is practical in many applications, and hence an essential part of total power in each sector. The average electric power used is according to the US Energy Information Administration: global average 300 W/person, in Canada 2000 W/person, and in Niger 2 W/person.

The composition of the world’s primary energy in approximate (somewhat outdated) numbers:

• Oil 36% 5.4 TW 830 W/person
• Coal 23% 3.9 TW 630 W/person
• Natural gas 20% 3.0 TW 460 W/person
• Nuclear 7% 1.1TW 160 W/person
• Hydro 2% 0.3 TW 46 W/person
• Biomass and wastes 11% 1.7 TW 254 W/person
• Solar wind geothermal 1% 0.1 TW 15 W/person

Fossil fuels supply at present the bulk of world energy; as their availability is limited, and as their use contributes to global warming, they need to be replaced. Nuclear energy has problems of its own, and should also be replaced by more benign technology based on solar energy.

Conclusions

The replacement of fossil fuels and nuclear energy in the present world energy system by direct technical conversion of solar energy requires some 30 m2/person of solar collectors, and is technically feasible. Due to the lower efficiency of biological collection of solar energy the land area needed for bulk replacement of fossil and nuclear energy is 4000 m2/person; this is not feasible due to several reasons. There is a global shortage of biologically productive land, water, and fertilizer; furthermore, energy farming is in direct competition with food production, and contributes to further reduction of biodiversity in the Earth’s ecosystem.

World Energy Use by Fuel

New Scientist has a topic guide on Energy and Fuels. Their nice infographics shows World Energy use by fuel type (oil, coal, gas, biomass, nuclear, hidro) and usage (transport, electricity, industry and residential/other).


The Energy and Fuels instant expert article discusses the coming energy crisis, and the new technologies that could save us from it, in New Scientist's beginner's guide.

Sustainable Nanocity in India to Use Renewable Energy

The vision of NANOCITY in India is to develop a sustainable city with world class infrastructure and to create an ecosystem for innovation leading to economy, ecology and social cohesion.

Nanocity spans 11138 acres of flatland located just beyond the foothills of the Himalayas. It is less than 25 kms east of Chandigarh and just over 200 kms north of Delhi. Two seasonal rivers form the eastern and western borders of the city and two streams trickle within its boundaries. It is a public/private partnership between Sabeer Bhatia Group and the Haryana State Government promoted by Sabeer Bhatia.

Green City

NANOCITY has been designed to be a green city. It uses context as opportunity, promotes a lush and shaded climate-sensitive environment, encourages the expansion of local natural systems, and advances ecologically intelligent and sustainable design. Half of the land will thrive as a green open space. Grassy frontages, green belts, courtyards, walking trails and public parks will contribute to the all – natural vibrancy of the city. Tree lined boulevards will offer shaded, climate sensitive environments. The urban infrastructure will be ecologically intelligent and sustainable by outfitting the buildings with energy efficient systems and renewable energy sources.

Sustainable City

Global warming and climate change make the contemporary urban agenda a global one. Nanocity will preserve the naturally existing resources of the land. During monsoon, water will be harvested for retention and use throughout the year. The water reclaimed from the rivers and other natural sources will undergo intensive bioremediation to make it safe for consumption. The city will be outfitted with a dual distribution piped water system to separate drinking water from reclaimed greywater used for non-potable purposes. Living machine technology will provide Nanocity with the capacity to convert wastewater into odor-free drinking water. Half of the energy used in the city will come from renewable sources viz: wind, solar and photovoltaic technologies. Buildings will use climate responsive design techniques such as sun shading, cross ventilation and direct evaporative cooling. At least 70% of the city’s waste will be recycled or composted.

State of the art city transit

The pedestrian has priority in Nanocity. Tree-lined streets, green store fronts and narrow, shaded sidewalks will ensure a pleasant walking environment. To dissuade "car culture", a state of the art public transit system has been envisaged. on the move. Nanocity’s Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system will consists of a main loop connecting the entire city. There are secondary loops, neighbourhood loops with transferstops and regional transit centres to increase the efficiency of mass transport. Each residence will be within a five minute walking distance from every starting point in the city. If one has to journey by car, two wheelers & other automobiles, there are lanes that are specifically meant for them thereby making the journey safe and comfortable.

Peak Oil for Dummies

Peak Oil for Dummies is a new post on Seeking Alpha by Lionel Badal. A short overview:

Introduction

Over the past decade, a fierce debate has emerged amongst energy experts about whether global oil production was about to reach a peak, followed by an irreversible decline.

This event, commonly known as “Peak Oil” far outreaches the sole discipline of geology. From transportation to modern agriculture, petrochemicals and even the pharmaceutical industry all of them rely on one commodity: cheap and abundant oil. In order to sustain the needs of an ever globalized world, oil demand should double by 2050.

Nonetheless, geological limitations will disrupt this improbable scenario. In fact, a growing proportion of energy experts argue that Peak Oil is impending and warn about the extraordinary scale of the crisis.

42 Years of Oil Left?

According to the 2009 BP Statistical Review, the world has precisely 42 years of oil left. Those numbers come from a very simple formula, the R/P ratio, which consists of dividing the official number of global oil reserves by the level of today’s production.

Nevertheless, this methodology is dangerously defective on several key points as it ignores geological realities. Oil production does not consist of a plan level of production that brutally ends one day; it follows a bell-shaped curve.

Indeed, the important day occurs when production starts to decline, not when it ends. As it is a non-flexible commodity, even a small deficit in oil production can lead to a major price surge.

Finally, the R/P ratio does not acknowledge that production costs increase over the time; the first oil fields to be developed were logically the easy ones and so the most profitable. It is well recognized that remaining oil fields consist of whether poor quality oil or remotely located fields which need high technologies and expensive investments.

Therefore, relying on the R/P ratio gives a false impression of security while the actual situation is critical.

Global Oil Reserves: Lies and Manipulations

Oil is a strategic resource; therefore having oil is a key political and economical advantage for a state. This is why politics interfere in the evaluation of oil reserves, especially in countries with poor accountability records; that is, the majority of OPEC countries.

At this point, we should not forget that oil reserves reported by these countries are not audited by independent experts. In 2006, the notorious Petroleum Intelligence Weekly said it had access to confidential Kuwaiti reports which stated that reserves were half the official numbers.

The question of oil reserves is most relevant. As oil exporting countries have less oil in their ground, Peak Oil will arrive faster. Oil optimists who argue Peak Oil is still decades away rely on these same erroneous data.

In addition, if importing countries assume oil reserves are abundant as they do, the crisis will be unexpected, unprepared and misunderstood; in one word: overwhelming. Similarly, once oil shortages occur, oil importing countries may assume that exporting countries are deliberately reducing their oil exports to harm their national interests.

Such a flawed assumption from oil importing countries is likely to have serious repercussions, and eventually lead to new oil wars.

The Imminent Decline of Global Oil Production

By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD… The implications for future conflict are ominous...

At this pace, global oil production could decline by 50% from its current level, as soon as 2030.

A Contested Reality: By Whom and Why?

For many years, Peak Oil was ignored by officials from oil companies and governmental agencies such as the IEA. They negligently repeated that production was not at risk.

Any Viable Alternative Energy?

There is no easy, present, solution to the crisis. Alternatives to oil are still far from being a feasible replacement; hydrogen for example would require 30 to 50 years to replace oil economies.

Meanwhile, the automobile industry is now planning to develop electric cars in the near future. While the first electric cars are expected to come on line in 2010-12, in order to replace 50% of the car fleet, the world would need between 10 to 20 years.

Besides, as manufacturing a single car requires at least 20 barrels of oil, once oil production starts to decline, in 2011-2013, it will increasingly become difficult to develop the electric car on a massive scale.

In fact, the closer we get to Peak Oil, the more difficult a massive and costly emergency plan to develop alternative energies will become.

The Industrial Civilisation at a Turning Point

A former director at the IEA, who used to be the superior of Dr. Fatih Birol, told me during a discussion that,

The current (economic) crisis was caused by the insufficiency of (oil) supply from 2007 onwards, an avatar of Peak Oil.

This extract from the Energy Watch Group study on oil production provides useful additional information:

The world is at the beginning of a structural change of its economic system. This change will be triggered by declining fossil fuel supplies and will influence almost all aspects of our daily life... The now beginning transition period probably has its own rules which are valid only during this phase. Things might happen which we never experienced before and which we may never experience again once this transition period has ended.

Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast

Catastrophic shortfalls threaten economic recovery, says world's top energy economist Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA).

In an interview with The Independent, Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years – at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated.

"The market power of the very few oil-producing countries, mainly in the Middle East, will increase very quickly. They already have about 40 per cent share of the oil market and this will increase much more strongly in the future,"

"There is now a real risk of a crunch in the oil supply after next year when demand picks up because not enough is being done to build up new supplies of oil to compensate for the rapid decline in existing fields."

The IEA estimates that the decline in oil production in existing fields is now running at 6.7 per cent a year compared to the 3.7 per cent decline it had estimated in 2007, which it now acknowledges to be wrong.

"What we need to do is accelerate the mobilisation of renewables, energy efficiency and alternative transport. Read the full interview on the above link."

Prepare for Peak Oil, Climate Change and Economic Collapse

From the Introduction of Peak Oil Prep by Mick Winter:

By the time you're reading this, the situation in our society may have already drastically changed. If not, it's likely to soon. Your options will depend on what has already happened, and what is yet to come. With Peak Oil Prep: Prepare for Peak Oil, Climate Change and Economic Collapse you have a handbook —a how-to and where-to guide—that will help you deal with the consequences of Peak Oil, climate change and economic
collapse, whether those consequences are minor or severe.

The book and its contents are designed so that you'll find it useful whenever you come to the realization that things are changing and not going to be the way they “always” have
been. All of the information in the book is valuable if you still have time to prepare. Most of it is still useful after things have gotten bad.

In this book you'll find suggestions and resources; ideas that will be of help and also ideas that will spur you to think of still other ways of dealing with, and adapting to, the new reality.
There are many factors that can lead to (or, by the time you might read this, have led to) economic collapse. The financial markets, including stocks and bonds and particularly hedge
funds. Increasing unemployment. Declining automobile sales due to the rising cost of gasoline. The bursting of the housing bubble. And, of course, Peak Oil.

The book covers many areas including community, food, money and transport. It is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License. The pdf version is available online at Dry Dipstick.