Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Export Land Model Predicts Rapid Oil Decline

The Export Land Model (ELM) presented in these slides at ASPO Denver by Jeffrey J. Brown, Samuel Foucher, PhD, Jorge Silveus predicts rapidly declining net oil exports:

Three Primary Factors That Control Net Export Declines
  • Consumption as a percentage of production at final production peak
  • Rate of change in production
  • Rate of change in consumption

Three Primary Characteristics of Net Export Declines:
  • The net export decline rate tends to exceed the production decline rate
  • The net export decline rate tends to accelerate with time
  • Net export declines tend to be “Front-end loaded,” with the bulk of post-peak net exports being shipped early in the decline phase
Check out the full presentation on the Export Land Model and the other proceedings of ASPO2009 here.

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